Joint Estimation of Relative Risk for Dengue and Zika Infections, Colombia, 2015-2016.

Publisher: National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 9508155 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1080-6059 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 10806040 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Emerg Infect Dis Subsets: MEDLINE

Original Publication: Atlanta, GA : National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), [1995-

Dengue/*epidemiology ; Zika Virus Infection/*epidemiology; Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Distribution ; Bayes Theorem ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Colombia/epidemiology ; Dengue/history ; Dengue/virology ; Dengue Virus ; Female ; Geography, Medical ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Young Adult ; Zika Virus ; Zika Virus Infection/history ; Zika Virus Infection/virology

We jointly estimated relative risk for dengue and Zika virus disease (Zika) in Colombia, establishing the spatial association between them at the department and city levels for October 2015-December 2016. Cases of dengue and Zika were allocated to the 87 municipalities of 1 department and the 293 census sections of 1 city in Colombia. We fitted 8 hierarchical Bayesian Poisson joint models of relative risk for dengue and Zika, including area- and disease-specific random effects accounting for several spatial patterns of disease risk (clustered or uncorrelated heterogeneity) within and between both diseases. Most of the dengue and Zika high-risk municipalities varied in their risk distribution; those for Zika were in the northern part of the department and dengue in the southern to northeastern parts. At city level, spatially clustered patterns of dengue high-risk census sections indicated Zika high-risk areas. This information can be used to inform public health decision making.

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Keywords: Bayesian models; Colombia; Risk maps; Zika virus; conditional auto-regressive prior; dengue virus; multivariate risk models; viruses

Date Created: 20190521 Date Completed: 20191223 Latest Revision: 20231011

20240104

PMC6537708

10.3201/eid2506.180392

31107226