Colombian peace process likely to succeed

On 2 October 2016, Colombians voted on a referendum to “end the conflict and establish stable and enduring peace” between Las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, FARC, and Colombia’s democratic government. The referendum was rejected by a narrow margin―49.8% of voters in favor of the peace deal and 50.2% opposed. Following the referendum several terms were revised and the peace accord was approved by Colombian Congress on 30 November 2016. Now, the transition to peace begins. Structured Analytic Techniques including Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, Scenario Generation, and Red Team Analysis support the conclusion that the Colombian peace process will likely be successful in the near future following an immediate period of increased threat from armed actors. Colombia and FARC have remained dedicated to establishing peace within the country since 2012 and the Colombian government's priority at present is to counter threats to disrupt the post-conflict transition from armed actors including opposing paramilitary groups and criminal organizations known as BACRIMs. The peace process is likely to be successful in the long run as Colombia focuses on reestablishing its presence and providing access to basic services including education and healthcare for rural Colombian citizens. US assistance to Colombia during the post-conflict transition will help ensure success of the peace process in the long run.