Economic growth and deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate: a panel ARDL and panel NARDL approach

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to provide empirical evidence on the impact of deviations from the long-run sustainable real exchange rate (RER) equilibrium on real economic growth rate applying panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) (Pooled Mean Group, Mean Group and Dynamic Fixed Effects estimators) in a dynamic heterogeneous panel setting and panel NARDL for the largest database covering 104 countries during 1995?2022 period developed by Couharde et al. (2017). Design/methodology/approach - The EQCHANGE database makes available not only the equilibrium RER but also misalignments according to the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach for each country. One of the main objectives is to examine whether undervaluation or overvaluation RER can imply different responses on economic performance trying to differentiate between short and long run effects. Additionally, the authors consider the World Bank (WB)'s income classifications to compare the asymmetries attending to high-income, upper-middle-income, lower-middle-income and low-income levels. Findings - Applying the panel ARDL technique, the results suggest that the RER misalignments have a negative but not significant effect on the short-run, nevertheless a negative and highly significant impact on real economic growth rate is detected on the long-run. Considering the panel NARDL, the asymmetric relationship between RER misalignment and economic growth rate is supported considering all countries in the long-run (in the short-term is not significant). In the long run is detected that undervaluation can promote economic growth rate, rather than overvaluation which can harm the economic performance. Additionally, the WB and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) income's classifications have been applied and the long-run symmetry test is strongly rejected regardless of income group. Originality/value - To the best of the author knowledge, this is the first time the non-linear panel ARDL methodology has been applied for analyzing the impact ...