Analytical groundwork for circular economy roadmaps based on a soft systems approach:A case study of lithium-ion batteries

Roadmaps, instrumental in envisioning societal futures, have become pivotal in developing socio-technical imaginaries such as the circular economy (CE). Despite the proliferation of CE roadmaps globally, recent reports indicate slow transitions, questioning their usefulness. Driven by the motivation to create useful CE roadmaps, this paper proposes a systematic seven-step methodology for conducting analytical groundwork. The study contributes from a methodological perspective by providing structured guidance on how to design and carry out the preparatory, system-based analysis that precedes and strengthens participatory roadmap cocreation. Underpinned by soft systems approaches, it is designed to be used alongside traditional co-creation processes in a way that enhances the final quality of CE roadmaps. By integrating soft systems thinking with roadmapping practice, the methodology advances foresight approaches for sustainability transitions. The CE of lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) is used as a case study to demonstrate the approach. The groundwork for the CE roadmap of LiBs highlights the need for a systems perspective that looks beyond recycling, emphasising diverse circulation routes, especially narrowing the loop in the pre-use phase. A systems-based understanding of routes of circulation also outlines the feedback loops between different strategies that require consideration when designing interventions. This illustrates how the proposed analytical groundwork can reveal system interactions that may otherwise remain overlooked in conventional roadmapping processes.