Abstract: Background/Objectives: Targeting individuals with certain characteristics provides improved precision in many healthcare applications. An alert mechanism for COPD exacerbations has recently been validated. It has been argued that its efficacy improves considerably with stratification. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the cough data of the stratified cohort to identify options for and the feasibility of improved precision in the alert mechanism for the intended patient group. Methods: The alert system was extended using a system complementary to the existing one to accommodate observed rapid changes in cough trends. The designed system was tested in a post hoc analysis of the data. The trend data were inspected to consider their meaningfulness for patients and caregivers. Results: While stratification was effective in reducing misses, the augmented alert system improved the sensitivity and number of early alerts for the acute exacerbation of COPD (AE-COPD). The combination of stratification and the augmented mechanism led to sensitivity of 86%, with a false alert rate in the order of 1.5 per year in the target group. The alert system is rule-based, operating on interpretable signals that may provide patients or their caregivers with better insights into the respiratory condition. Conclusions: The augmented alert system operating based on cough trends has the promise of increased precision in detecting AE-COPD in the target group. Since the design and testing of the augmented system were based on the same data, the system needs to be validated. Signals within the alert system are potentially useful for improved self-management in the target group.
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