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Bridging the gap - estimation of 2022/2023 SARS-CoV-2 healthcare burden in Germany based on multidimensional data from a rapid epidemic panel.
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- Author(s): Harries, Manuela1,2 (AUTHOR) ; Jaeger, Veronika K.1,3 (AUTHOR); Rodiah, Isti1 (AUTHOR); Hassenstein, Max J.1 (AUTHOR); Ortmann, Julia1 (AUTHOR); Dreier, Maren2 (AUTHOR); von Holt, Isabell2 (AUTHOR); Brinkmann, Melanie2 (AUTHOR); Dulovic, Alex4 (AUTHOR); Gornyk, Daniela1 (AUTHOR); Hovardovska, Olga1 (AUTHOR); Kuczewski, Christina1 (AUTHOR); Kurosinski, Marc-André3 (AUTHOR); Schlotz, Maike5 (AUTHOR); Schneiderhan-Marra, Nicole4 (AUTHOR); Strengert, Monika1 (AUTHOR); Krause, Gérard1,6 (AUTHOR); Sester, Martina7 (AUTHOR); Klein, Florian5,8,9 (AUTHOR); Petersmann, Astrid10,11 (AUTHOR)
- Source:
International Journal of Infectious Diseases. Feb2024, Vol. 139, p50-58. 9p.
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- Abstract:
• Feasibility of rapid epidemic panel involving population-based cohort. • Four protection levels against severe COVID-19 based on literature synthesis. • Protection levels based on vaccination, previous infection, and immunity status. • Model-based estimates on SARS-CoV-2 hospitalizations with varying scenarios. • Varying scenarios on transmissibility, variants, and boosters inform policymakers. Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Germany like other countries lacked adaptive population-based panels to monitor the spread of epidemic diseases. To fill a gap in population-based estimates needed for winter 2022/23 we resampled in the German SARS-CoV-2 cohort study MuSPAD in mid-2022, including characterization of systemic cellular and humoral immune responses by interferon-γ-release assay (IGRA) and CLIA/IVN assay. We were able to confirm categorization of our study population into four groups with differing protection levels against severe COVID-19 courses based on literature synthesis. Using these estimates, we assessed potential healthcare burden for winter 2022/23 in different scenarios with varying assumptions on transmissibility, pathogenicity, new variants, and vaccine booster campaigns in ordinary differential equation models. We included 9921 participants from eight German regions. While 85% of individuals were located in one of the two highest protection categories, hospitalization estimates from scenario modeling were highly dependent on viral variant characteristics ranging from 30-300% compared to the 02/2021 peak. Our results were openly communicated and published to an epidemic panel network and a newly established modeling network. We demonstrate feasibility of a rapid epidemic panel to provide complex immune protection levels for inclusion in dynamic disease burden modeling scenarios. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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