Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach.

Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101563288 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2045-2322 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20452322 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Rep Subsets: MEDLINE

Original Publication: London : Nature Publishing Group, copyright 2011-

Health Services Accessibility* ; Models, Statistical*; COVID-19/*prevention & control ; COVID-19 Vaccines/*therapeutic use ; Immunization Programs/*methods ; Pandemics/*prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2/*immunology ; Vaccination/*methods; Argentina/epidemiology ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/transmission ; COVID-19/virology ; Humans ; Mexico ; Social Behavior ; Spain ; Stochastic Processes ; Travel

In a world being hit by waves of COVID-19, vaccination is a light on the horizon. However, the roll-out of vaccination strategies and their influence on the pandemic are still open questions. In order to compare the effect of various strategies proposed by the World Health Organization and other authorities, a previously developed SEIRS stochastic model of geographical spreading of the virus is extended by adding a compartment for vaccinated people. The parameters of the model were fitted to describe the pandemic evolution in Argentina, Mexico and Spain to analyze the effect of the proposed vaccination strategies. The mobility parameters allow to simulate different social behaviors (e.g. lock-down interventions). Schemes in which vaccines are applied homogeneously in all the country, or limited to the most densely-populated areas, are simulated and compared. The second strategy is found to be more effective. Moreover, under the current global shortage of vaccines, it should be remarked that immunization is enhanced when mobility is reduced. Additionally, repetition of vaccination campaigns should be timed considering the immunity lapse of the vaccinated (and recovered) people. Finally, the model is extended to include the effect of isolation of detected positive cases, shown to be important to reduce infections.
(© 2022. The Author(s).)

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0 (COVID-19 Vaccines)

Date Created: 20220201 Date Completed: 20220209 Latest Revision: 20220209

20250114

PMC8803887

10.1038/s41598-022-05481-8

35102216