Economics and Elections: The Mexican Case.

ELECTIONS; EFFECT of inflation on income; PRESIDENTIAL elections; DEVELOPED countries; INTERNATIONAL trade

The article presents a model to account for the effects of deteriorating economic conditions on presidential voting in Mexico in 1988. The intent of this research was to develop a model to account for the effects of deteriorating economic conditions on presidential voting in Mexico. This goal has met with some success. By using three aggregate economic indicators--balance of trade, inflation, and per capita income--researchers can explain nearly 85 percent of the variation in the vote for parties of the Left in presidential elections. The model appears to predict the elections' results quite well when compared to the actual percentage of votes for the Left. This model can prove useful in understanding not only the Mexican political arena of the future, but perhaps also those of other developing countries with similar tenets of democracy. Most importantly, this research suggests that even in a fraud-ridden, semicompetitive electoral system voters act very much like their counterparts in established, electorally competitive democracies.