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Prediction of Preschool Teacher Demand under China's Three-Child Policy: A Case Study of Shanghai

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  • Author(s): Yifang Wang (ORCID Yifang Wang (ORCID 0000-0003-4382-5873); Huijuan Di; Qingru Duan
  • Language:
    English
  • Source:
    Early Childhood Education Journal. 2025 53(2):447-461.
  • Publication Date:
    2025
  • Document Type:
    Journal Articles
    Reports - Research
  • Additional Information
    • Availability:
      Springer. Available from: Springer Nature. One New York Plaza, Suite 4600, New York, NY 10004. Tel: 800-777-4643; Tel: 212-460-1500; Fax: 212-460-1700; e-mail: customerservice@springernature.com; Web site: https://link.springer.com/
    • Peer Reviewed:
      Y
    • Source:
      15
    • Education Level:
      Early Childhood Education
      Preschool Education
    • Subject Terms:
      Foreign Countries; Preschool Teachers; Teacher Shortage; Demand Occupations; Federal Regulation; Population Growth; Computer Uses in Education; Enrollment Trends; Predictor Variables; Educational Policy; Policy Formation; Causal Models; Resource Allocation
    • Subject Terms:
      China (Shanghai)
    • Accession Number:
      10.1007/s10643-023-01604-6
    • ISSN:
      1082-3301
      1573-1707
    • Abstract:
      China's recent implementation of the three-child policy is expected to have profound implications for population dynamics, leading to potential changes in preschool enrollment and subsequent demand for preschool teachers. This study addresses this issue by utilizing population forecasting software (PADIS-INT) to project population growth trends and estimate the corresponding demand for different categories of preschool teachers in Shanghai from 2023 to 2050. The analysis is based on data derived from Shanghai's seventh census, serving as the foundation for the study. The findings reveal a temporal pattern in the population aged 0-6 years and the number of children enrolled in preschool services, characterized by an initial increase followed by a subsequent decline from 2023 to 2050, ultimately falling below that of 2021. Additionally, the study forecasts a decrease in demand for full-time teachers, healthcare workers, health education teachers, and principals compared to the demand observed in 2021. Conversely, the demand for nursery teachers is projected to increase during the same period. These findings hold valuable implications for policymakers, offering crucial insights for the formulation of effective preschool teacher development policies and optimization of resource allocation in Shanghai between 2023 and 2050.
    • Abstract:
      As Provided
    • Publication Date:
      2025
    • Accession Number:
      EJ1460463