ASSESSING THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF THE SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY TRANSITION IN A EUROPEAN CITY

Managing urban mobility is one of the most complex challenges facing city governments. Scarce resources make it necessary to adopt an integrated strategy, able to apply sustainable mobility policies evaluated in a scientific and measurable way and flexible enough to accommodate for future changes. In this context, this paper assesses the magnitude and the impacts of the transition to sustainable urban mobility, by providing the preliminary quantification of its costs and benefits in the city of Munich by 2030 and 2050. This example has been selected among the European cities considered within the 2021 EIT Urban Mobility study (Borgato et al., 2021). The paper illustrates through transport, environmental and economic indicators the impacts of the mobility transition in three potential scenarios simulated with the MOMOS assessment tool. Additionally, the paper focuses on the effectiveness of sustainable policies' clusters. It provides an understanding of how intensively policies should be implemented to reach the Green Deal target and the EU objectives in the field of sustainable urban transport. Results shows that in Munich – as in most of the European cities considered in the EIT Urban Mobility study – the Green Deal CO2 emission reduction targets for the year 2050 (-90%, compared to 1990 levels) can be achieved in all three policy scenarios thanks to the implementation of sustainable policy measures as well as to an ambitious road vehicle fleet decarbonisation in line with the assumptions of the EU "Fit for 55" strategy. On the other hand, the 2030 target (-55%) can only be reached with drastic changes in people's mobility behaviour and very significant reduction of private motorized modes.