Prevalence and Predictors of Unnecessary Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography in the Two-Stage Endoscopic Stone Extraction Followed by Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy

A two-stage procedure involving endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), followed by cholecystectomy, is one of the primary treatments of concomitant gallstones and choledocholithiasis. However, negative findings on ERCP and migrating gallstones after cholecystectomy are major concerns. This study aimed to identify the prevalence of unnecessary ERCP and to develop and validate a predictive nomogram using preoperative factors in patients who underwent a two-stage procedure. Consecutive 931 patients were treated with the two-stage procedure for evident gallstones and suspected choledocholithiasis. After the cholecystectomy, a cholangiogram was performed to confirm the absence of the migrating gallstones. The patients were divided into derivation (n = 652) and validation (n = 279) cohorts. A total of 26.5% (247/931) patients had unnecessary ERCP (negative choledocholithiasis, 14.6%; migrating gallstones, 11.9%). No stones on images (P