Three-hour post-ERCP amylase level: a useful indicator for early prediction of post-ERCP pancreatitis

Background To evaluate the value of the 3-h post-ERCP serum amylase level for early prediction of post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). Method A study of 206 patients performed ERCP (Encoscopic Retrograde Cholangio-Pancreatography) at a single centre was done from Jan. 2011 to Nov. 2016. The serum amylase or lipase level was measured at 3 h after ERCP. The patients with PEP were recorded. ROC curves were used to statistically analyze the data: The enrolled patients were divided into two groups according to gender, then we analyzed the data respectively. We comprehensively evaluated the predictive value of PEP by 3-h post-ERCP serum amylase level based on the results above. Results Two hundred six patients (92 males, 114 females) were enrolled. PEP occurred in 21 patients (10.19%) among them. The median time to discharge was 7 days (min = 1d, max = 13d) after the procedure. In the 206 patients, the 3-h post-ERCP pancreatic amylase level was used as the test variable, and the PEP occurrence as the state variable to plot the ROC curve. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.816, and was statistically significant (P P Conclusions 1. The 3-h post-ERCP serum amylase level is a useful measurement for predicting post-ERCP pancreatitis. 2. There was no significant difference between serum amylase and lipase 3-h post-ERCP for predicting PEP. 3. There was no statistically significant difference between male and female using the 3-h post-ERCP serum amylase level to predict PEP. For female, the optimal cut-off value was 357 U/L, whereas male 436 U/L .