The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait

BackgroundMany countries have succeeded in curbing the outbreak of COVID-19 by employing strict public health control measures. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures in curbing the outbreak in developing countries. In this study, we seek to assess the impact of various outbreak control measures in Kuwait to gain more insight into the outbreak progression and the associated healthcare burden.MethodsWe use a SEIR mathematical model to simulate the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19 in Kuwait with additional testing and hospitalization compartments. We use a NBD observational framework for confirmed case and death counts. We forecast model trajectories and assess the effectiveness of public health interventions by using maximum likelihood to estimate both the basic and effective reproduction numbers.ResultsOur results indicate that the early strict control measures had the effect of delaying the intensity of the outbreak but were unsuccessful in reducing the effective reproduction number below 1. Forecasted model trajectories suggest a need to expand the healthcare system capacity to cope with the associated epidemic burden of such ineffectiveness.ConclusionStrict public health interventions may not always lead to the same desired outcomes, particularly when population and demographic factors are not accounted for as in the case in some developing countries. Real-time dynamic modeling can provide an early assessment of the impact of such control measures as well as a forecasting tool to support outbreak surveillance and the associated healthcare expansion planning.SUMMARY BOXWhat is already known on the subject?Evidence is accumulating about the positive impact of various strict public health interventions on the transmission of COVID-19 in the developed world. Currently, however, many developing countries are still struggling to control and suppress the initial wave of the outbreak. In particular, less attention is given to assessing the impact of taking similar strict control measures.What does this study add?Our modeling study provides the first evidence showing how the imposition of strict public health measures has not led to a reduction in COVID-19 transmission in Kuwait. It highlights the importance of performing systematic epidemiological and public health investigations of the population factors which may limit the effectiveness of standard public health interventions in developing countries. It also emphasizes the utility of adopting dynamic modeling approaches for intervention assessment and healthcare capacity re-adjustment at the earliest stages of the outbreak.