Inversión en maquinaria y equipo en Colombia y la región: Determinantes de largo plazo y efectos del COVID-19 sobre su evolución

Colombia experienced a decline in investment due to the COVID-19 shock, resulting in a negative gap of -2.8% of GDP in the second quarter of 2020. The recovery of investment in Colombia has been relatively slow but has been bolstered by sustained and growing dynamics in machinery and equipment purchases. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic factors influencing this type of investment and its behavior during the pandemic. The results confirm the expected effects: purchases of machinery and equipment decrease when the cost of capital use and the real exchange rate rise, while they increase in response to growth in economic activity and industrial confidence. Control variables include additional factors that may affect investment decisions, such as loan availability and degree of openness.