Airport strategic planning under uncertainty: fuzzy dual dynamic programming approach ; Planification stratégique des aéroports en environnements incertains : approche utilisant la programmation dynamique et logique dual floue

Airports are critical connectors in the air transportation operational system. In order to meet their operational, economic and social obligations in a very volatile environment, airports need to embrace change rather than resist it. Like any other industry, airports face a wide array of risks, some specific to air transportation, other having only an indirect influence but powerful enough to disrupt airport activities. Long term airport planning has become a complex issue due to the constant growth in air traffic demand. A new dimension of complexity emerged when uncertainty began having a more, and more disruptive, and significantly costly impact on developing airport infrastructure. Historically, the ability of traditional risk and uncertainty mitigation tools proved inefficient. Countless unforeseen events like terrorist attacks, economic recession, natural disasters, had a dramatic impact on traffic levels, some with a global reach. To these highly improbable type of events can be added technological advancements, new airlines and airports business models, policy and regulation changes, increasing concern for environmental impact. In this context, the thesis puts forward an innovative approach for addressing risk assessment and mitigation under uncertainty in long-term airport infrastructure development projects. The thesis expands on the newly developed formalism of fuzzy dual numbers as a key tool to address uncertainty. After a comprehensive review of the airport industry in the context of uncertain environments, fuzzy dual numbers and fuzzy dual calculus are introduced. Since airport infrastructure development project is another case of multi-stage decision-making problem, dynamic programming is considered in order to optimize the sequential decision making process. The originality of the approach resides in the fact that the entire process will be fuzzified and fuzzy dual dynamic programming components will be introduced. To validate our method, a study case will be developed. ; Les aéroports sont des ...