A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Impact of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems and a Strategy for Its Regeneration

International audience ; Climate change is affecting forest ecosystems worldwide in a number of ways, with varying effects on forest structure and its health. In this article, we model the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems and their regeneration. In particular, this study explores the dynamics of tree mortality in a warming world, as well as the global effect of temperature on forests through the use of a penalty function. We examine a solution proposed to save forests: the active regeneration of forest ecosystems. The article highlights two recently studied principles: (i) the increase of temperature plays a major role in tree mortality, and (ii) the introduction of an enriching species into the forest (ecosystem regeneration) can promote the regeneration of endemic species, which in turn contributes to ecosystem restoration. Our model is based on a system of ordinary differential equations. We perform a stability and bifurcation analysis in order to study a possible successful regeneration of the forest ecosystem.