Understanding the past to envision a sustainable future: A social-ecological history of the Barranquilla Metropolitan Area (Colombia)

Urban growth is one of the major sustainability challenges due to its regional and planetary impacts. In the Colombian Caribbean, one of the most biodiverse places in the world, the Barranquilla Metropolitan Area (BMA) is the main urban agglomeration that has driven landscape transformation. We performed a historical analysis of human-nature relationships in the BMA using a social-ecological approach and the adaptive cycle metaphor to identify the main drivers of change and to point out emergent lessons for sustainability transition. Based on the analysis of existing literature, time series data and ecosystem distribution changes through time, we found that the natural capital has been degraded, human-social capital has had periods of crisis and recovery, while physical-financial capital has increased. The BMA is currently in a highly vulnerable situation and faces great challenges to be sustainable. We discuss the system's possible future paths: a new collapse due to natural capital depletion, stagnation in a very vulnerable state, or a reorganization. We argue that viewing and managing the BMA as a social-ecological system would contribute to move forward in a sustainable direction ; J.A.-D. was funded by The Strategic Research Area on Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services and Well-Being and the Caribbean Biodiversity Center at the Universidad del Norte and the Colombian Administrative Department of Science, Technology and Innovation-Colciencias