Contributors: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE); Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)); Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA); Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées (MIA Paris-Saclay); AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE); ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC); Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)); Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences; Peking University Beijing; Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC); Laboratoire de géologie de l'ENS (LGENS); Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL; École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL); Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL); Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL); Key Laboratory of Plant-Soil Interactions - College of Resources and Environmental Sciences (PSI); China Agricultural University (CAU); Department of Geosciences Oslo; Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Oslo; University of Oslo (UiO)-University of Oslo (UiO); Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund; Skane University Hospital Lund; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M); Max-Planck-Gesellschaft; Climate and Environmental Physics Bern (CEP); Physikalisches Institut Bern; Universität Bern = University of Bern = Université de Berne (UNIBE)-Universität Bern = University of Bern = Université de Berne (UNIBE); Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR); Universität Bern = University of Bern = Université de Berne (UNIBE); Center for Permafrost (CENPERM); Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management Copenhagen (IGN); Faculty of Science Copenhagen; University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-Faculty of Science Copenhagen; University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH); Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences; University of Montana; University of Utah; College of Life and Environmental Sciences Exeter; University of Exeter; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg (IIASA); School of Geography Leeds; University of Leeds; Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes (ECOSYS); University of Leicester; Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment Richmond (HIE); Western Sydney University; Department of Environmental Systems Science ETH Zürich (D-USYS); Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich); Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL; Department of Physical Geography Stockholm; Stockholm University; Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l'Environnement et de l'Espace (LPC2E); Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers en région Centre (OSUC); Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National d’Études Spatiales Paris (CNES); Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE); European Research Council, ERC: SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P; Agence Nationale de la Recherche, ANR; This work was supported by the European Research Council Synergy grant (SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P) and the French State Aid managed by the ANR under the ?Investissements d'avenir? programme (ANR-16-CONV-0003_Cland). ORCHIDEE-PEAT performed simulations using HPC resources from GENCI-TGCC (2020-A0070106328). A.V.G.-S. was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC standard grant no. NE/I012915/1 and no. NE/S001166/1). W.Z. acknowledges funding from the Swedish Research Council FORMAS 2016-01201 and Swedish National Space Agency 209/19. N.C. acknowledges funding by the Nunataryuk (EU grant agreement no. 773421) and the Swedish Research Council FORMAS (contract no. 2019-01151). LPJ-GUESS_dyn simulations were performed on the supercomputing facilities at the University of Oslo, Norway, and on the Aurora and Tetralith resources of the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at the Lund University Centre for Scientific and Technical Computing (Lunarc), project no. 2021/2-61 and no. 2021/2-28, and Link?ping University, project no. snic2020/5-563. A.G. P.A.M. W.Z. B.S. D.W. and N.C. acknowledge support from the strategic research areas Modeling the Regional and Global Earth System (MERGE) and Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate (BECC) at Lund University. P.A.M. and D.W. received financial support from the H2020 CRESCENDO project (grant agreement no. 641816). LPJ-GUESS simulations were enabled by resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at LUNARC partially funded by the Swedish Research Council through grant agreement no. 2018-05973. J.M. and F.J. acknowledge financial support by the Swiss National Science Foundation (no. 200020_172476 and no. 200020_200511) and funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 820989 (project COMFORT) and no. 821003 (project 4C). The work reflects only the authors views; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains. B.G. received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 641816 (CRESCENDO) and no. 821003 (4C project). B.D.S was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation grant no. PCEFP2_181115. T.K. acknowledges support from the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) through the PalMod programme (grant no. 01LP1507B and no. 01LP1921A). LPJ-MPI experiments were performed at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ), using resources from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. N.J.S. acknowledges financial support from Academy of Finland (no. 296887 and no. 334422) and the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (no. VN/28562/2020). J.C. acknowledged support from the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (no. 2021QNA6005). D.Z. acknowledges funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 42101090 and no. 41988101). W.Z and G.S. acknowledge support from the Danish National Research Foundation (DNRF100). C.Q. P.C. D.Z. and B.G. designed the research; C.Q. and P.C. drafted the manuscript; J.C. prepared the climate forcing for ORCHIDEE-PEAT and computed estimates of global and Northern Hemisphere CO2 emissions from ISIMIP2b terrestrial biosphere models; C.Q. N.C. T.K. X.Y.L. J.M. Y.X. and W.Z. performed model simulations; A.V.G.-S. and S.C.B. provided estimates for future peat carbon sink from Gallego-Sala 15; all authors contributed to the interpretation of the results and draft revision.; ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016); European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015)
Abstract: International audience ; Highlights d Northern peatlands remain a CO 2 sink of $0.1 Pg C year À1 until 2300 under RCP2.6 d Northern peatlands become a CO 2 source of $0.2 Pg C year À1 by 2300 under RCP8.5 d CH 4 emissions from northern peatlands will increase 5-fold by 2300 under RCP8.5 d Modeling of peatland resilience, vegetation, and peat quality changes should be improved
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