Evaluation of risk scores as predictors of mortality and hospital length of stay for older COVID-19 patients

Objective: This study was intended to research the sensitivity of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), COVID-GRAM, and MuLBSTA risk scores for hospital length of stay (LOS) and mortality in older patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).Methods: A total of 217 patients (119 women) were included in the study. The first clinical signs, comorbidities, laboratory and radiology findings, and hospital LOS were recorded for each patient. The CCI, COVID-GRAM, and MuLBSTA risk scores were calculated, and their sensitivities for hospital LOS and mortality were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.Results: Of the hospitalized patients, 59 (27.2%) were followed in the intensive care unit, and mortality developed in 44 (20.3%). The CCI positively correlated with COVID-GRAM and MuLBSTA scores (P < 0.001). COVID-GRAM and MuLBSTA results correlated with LOS and mortality (P < 0.001). According to the ROC curve analysis, the cutoff points for mortality were 5 for CCI, 169 for COVID-GRAM, and 9 for MuLBSTA.Conclusion: Older patients with comorbidities are the major risk group for severe COVID-19. COVID-GRAM and MuLBSTA scores appear to be sensitive and reliable mortality indicators for these patients. ; Uludag University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Biostatistics, Bursa, Turkey ; The authors would like to acknowledge the assistance of Ilker Ercan Ph.D. MD, Uludag University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Biostatistics, Bursa, Turkey.