Predicting evolution? ; Prédire l'évolution ?

In this thesis, we propose to unfold all that the question that serves as its title contains. To do this, we begin by questioning in the first part the relationship between prediction and explanation for the philosophy of science and evolutionary biology to grasp the causes of a predictive deficiency in the life sciences. Then, in our second part, we question all the sources of the predictive potential that the theory of evolution presents, namely the existence of trends and regularities in the history of life, but especially natural selection. After that, we examine the promise of new knowledge and the mechanisms that have been added to the modern synthesis in that they can enrich our prediction perspectives. Because we have recognized that the prediction of evolution is only possible by coordinating biology as closely as possible with the other natural sciences, we examine, in a third part, the relationships that these sciences weave. It is a question of thinking about the predictions that these sciences allow on the future of life, but also of analysing the value of the references that biologists make to physics. Finally, we propose in a final part the outline of a predictive theory of evolution that gives centrality to the notions of rhythm, inertia, and evolvability, which allows us to redefine natural selection accordingly. Our last chapter is devoted to critically examining the speculations, fears, and recommendations about the future of our species. ; Dans cette thèse, nous nous proposons de dérouler tout ce que la question qui lui sert de titre contient. Pour ce faire, nous commençons par interroger en première partie le rapport entre la prédiction et l’explication pour la philosophie des sciences et la biologie de l’évolution afin de saisir les causes d’une carence prédictive des sciences du vivant. Puis, dans notre seconde partie, nous interrogeons toutes les sources du potentiel prédictif que présente la théorie de l’évolution, à savoir l’existence de tendances et de régularités dans l’histoire de la ...