L'utilisation par la viticulture française d'un exercice de prospective pour l'élaboration d'une stratégie d'adaptation au changement climatique

Foresight studies are regularly conducted at sectoral or geographical scales, in order to help policy makers and economic actors to define their strategy of adaptation to climate change (CC). Some studies are rather “quick exercises”, in which a panel of experts is consulted to define the expected impacts of CC and to identify adaptation leviers for future policy. In other cases, a true foresight methodology is developed, leading to the building of scenarios based on : i) a systemic and participatory approach, ii) the definition of key variables, iii) the choice of assumptions and the coherent relations between these assumptions, the narrative description of scenarios. This participatory dimension of the approach may be relevant to better integrate the climate change challenge into future strategies chosen by decision makers. Such an exercise was conducted in the framework of the multidisciplinary INRA / LACCAVE research project (2013–2017) to consider the CC adaptation strategy that could be implemented in the French wine industry by 2050. This communication presents the outcomes and insights opened up by this prospective exercise, based on a new approach derived from the scenarios method, following two main steps : 1) The first step consists of a “classical”, topdown, expert-led prospective approach, including the selection of four possible adaptation scenarios ; it was presented at the OIV Congress in Bento Gonc¸alves in 2016. 2) The second step is based on a bottom-up participatory approach with regional and national stakeholders during six regional meetings. Each meeting brought together 60 to 100 actors invited to interact on four scenarios and on solutions that could be developed : the “Conservative scenario” driven by incremental changes ; the “Innovative scenario” driven by the development of a wide range of technical innovations ; the “Nomad scenario” focusing on the relocation of vineyards ; the “Liberal scenario” where “everything would be possible anywhere”. A national working group has been set up ...