Persistence of extreme low pH in a coralline algae habitat

The extent of projected ocean acidification is partly dependent on the natural variability of marine carbonate chemistry—which is higher in coastal systems than in the open ocean. However, there are limited empirical studies quantifying the rate, magnitude and drivers of coastal environmental variability, preventing accurate assessments for how species and their associated communities may respond to projected climate change. Here, we quantified the annual variability of pH, temperature and dissolved oxygen in a coralline algae reef, a globally distributed biodiverse habitat that may be one of the most sensitive to projected climate change. We found that coralline algae and their communities are exposed to pH values as low as those projected for 2100 (even under a low emission scenario) for 63% of the year, including most of autumn and all of winter. Annual fluctuations in pH ranged by 0.46 units, with identifiable patterns at diel to seasonal timescales driven by various biogeochemical factors. Biologically driven patterns in dissolved oxygen and pH were coupled at multiple periodicities, and temperature was coupled to pH during the winter. Tidal cycling additionally modulated biological forcing of pH, increasing the complexity of intra-seasonal pH variability. Forecasting this environmental variability to the future led to projections of new pH extremes well beyond all IPCC emission scenarios. However, persistent long-term exposure to low pH may increase the acclimation and adaptation potential of coralline algae and their associated communities, providing a level of optimism for the continued survival of this habitat despite sensitivity to projected climate change.