An Initial Complex Systems Analysis Of The Risks Of Blackouts In Power Transmission Systems

Introduction ElectEK power terE9R8qzEl systt are a key infrast9ElT8z andblackout oftE91 systzO have majordirect and indirect consequences on tE economy andnatO19O securitO In partOElTOT electEl powerblackout have cascading effect onotzq vit9 infrast9O8zEtl Whileit is usefult analyzeta detyzeE causes of individual blackoutl intEO paper we focus on tEint9z8zE dynamics of series ofblackout and how twE complex systx dynamicsimpact tp assessment and mitxKxElR of blackout risk. Indeed,td mitd,EOO9 of failures in complex systxE needst be approachedwit care. Tomot1zqE our work we considertn stiderEOK of series of blackoutO TheNort AmericanElectnEOK Reliabilit Council (NERC) has adocumentK list summarizing major blackout of tE Nort American power terEO9ROOEl systt from 1984t 1998 [NERC]. Onemight expect aprobabilit distabilit ofblackout sizest fall offexponentlOqT (as, for example, in a WeibulldistlE9R19K ). However, analyses of tE NERC dat [Carreras00, Carreras01a, Chen01, CarrerasPES] show t