The methodology for demographic estimation in small priority areas Case study: Demographic estimation in small disadvantaged priority area in France

In order for local communities (cities, municipalities) to carry out their duties and make decisions, they need to mobilize information on small sub-municipality-level areas. This is especially the case for disadvantaged priority areas in France. Estimation methods exist for some types of infra communal areas which were developed in 2010 and depend on the number of dwellings sampled in the area. Nowadays, these methods must be reviewed for several reasons: the demand for information on small areas has increased, the supply of auxiliary geo-located data has expanded, and geo-localization of population census data has been greatly developed. This research is going to propose a method to estimate the population as well as estimate some of the population characteristics on essentially infra-city communities. Depending on the sample size in these domains, research will apply direct estimation methods, indirect estimation methods or small areas estimation methods. The auxiliary information from financial baselines or administrative data will be taken into account, to improve the estimation. In order to assess the statistical quality of the produced estimations, research will consider variance and coefficient ò variation of each demographic estimation.