Abstract: The accurate prediction of autonomous vessel CO2 emissions is critical for achieving IMO 2050 carbon neutrality and optimizing low-carbon maritime operations. Traditional models face limitations in real-time multi-source data analysis and dynamic cross-variable dependency modeling, hindering data-driven decision-making for sustainable autonomous shipping. This study proposes a Multi-scale Channel-aligned Transformer (MCAT) model, integrated with a 5G–satellite–IoT communication architecture, to address these challenges. The MCAT model employs multi-scale token reconstruction and a dual-level attention mechanism, effectively capturing spatiotemporal dependencies in heterogeneous data streams (AIS, sensors, weather) while suppressing high-frequency noise. To enable seamless data collaboration, a hybrid transmission framework combining satellite (Inmarsat/Iridium), 5G URLLC slicing, and industrial Ethernet is designed, achieving ultra-low latency (10 ms) and nanosecond-level synchronization via IEEE 1588v2. Validated on a 22-dimensional real autonomous vessel dataset, MCAT reduces prediction errors by 12.5% MAE and 24% MSE compared to state-of-the-art methods, demonstrating superior robustness under noisy scenarios. Furthermore, the proposed architecture supports smart autonomous shipping solutions by providing demonstrably interpretable emission insights through its dual-level attention mechanism (visualized via attention maps) for route optimization, fuel efficiency enhancement, and compliance with CII regulations. This research bridges AI-driven predictive analytics with green autonomous shipping technologies, offering a scalable framework for digitalized and sustainable maritime operations.
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