Empirical determination of the tax size in Morocco ; Détermination empirique de la taille fiscale au Maroc

Fiscal policy is one of the main instruments of economic policy. It encompasses all the measures which have consequences on the resources and expenditure of the State and which aim to achieve certain short-term policy objectives. It plays, through taxation (taxes) and levies (compulsory), a crucial role in stimulating the growth of national production, which can be estimated by the long-term trend of the tax burden. Indeed, the level of tax pressure directly or indirectly influences all aggregates, performance and macroeconomic indicators. In fact, the action of the public authorities vis-à-vis the taxpayers, represented by the tax policy of the State, causes an impact that can be analyzed through the contribution of budgetary revenues of a tax nature to the formation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In addition, the profit tax resource they pay, determined in relation to their total profit revenue, is used to assess the effect of tax pressure on the dynamics of sectors or firms. So the objective of this work is to determine the impact of tax pressure on investment and in particular on economic growth for the Moroccan case. The data that will be used for this study are quarterly types issued with a duration ranging from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2020. The empirical study by the ordinary least squares method, a cointegration and a VAR model, shows that the tax burden has an effect on economic growth. The study con0cludes that a 1% drop in the tax burden will lead to a 0.23% drop in long-term economic growth. However, our modeling is based on the assumption that each endogenous variable is autoregressive, i.e., it depends on its own past values. This can be a limitation if some variables do not follow this structure, which can lead to biased or inefficient estimates. Keywords: Fiscal Pressure, Stationarity, Cointegration, Error Correction Model, Autoregressive Vector, Impulse Responses JEL Classification : C133, C21, C51, C52, E62 Paper type: Empirical research, ; La politique ...