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Academic Journal

When the levee breaks: A forecasting model of violent and nonviolent dissent.

Authors : Pinckney, Jonathan¹ (AUTHOR); RezaeeDaryakenari, Babak² (AUTHOR)

Source: International Interactions. Sep/Oct2022, Vol. 48 Issue 5, p997-1026. 30p.

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Academic Journal

Challenging the status quo: Predicting violence with sparse decision-making data.

Authors : Bätz, Konstantin¹ (AUTHOR); Klöckner, Ann-Cathrin¹ (AUTHOR); Schneider, Gerald^1,2 (AUTHOR)

Source: International Interactions. Jul/Aug2022, Vol. 48 Issue 4, p697-713. 17p.

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Academic Journal

United they stand: Findings from an escalation prediction competition.

Authors : Vesco, Paola¹ (AUTHOR); Hegre, Håvard^1,2 (AUTHOR); Colaresi, Michael^1,3 (AUTHOR)

Source: International Interactions. Jul/Aug2022, Vol. 48 Issue 4, p860-896. 37p.

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Academic Journal

Predicting (de-)escalation of sub-national violence using gradient boosting: Does it work?

Authors : Vestby, Jonas¹ (AUTHOR); Brandsch, Jürgen² (AUTHOR); Larsen, Vilde Bergstad¹ (AUTHOR)

Source: International Interactions. Jul/Aug2022, Vol. 48 Issue 4, p841-859. 19p.

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Academic Journal

Recurrent neural networks for conflict forecasting.

Authors : Malone, Iris¹ (AUTHOR)

Source: International Interactions. Jul/Aug2022, Vol. 48 Issue 4, p614-632. 19p.

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Academic Journal

Forecasting conflict using a diverse machine-learning ensemble: Ensemble averaging with multiple tree-based algorithms and variance promoting data configurations.

Authors : Ettensperger, Felix¹ (AUTHOR)

Source: International Interactions. Jul/Aug2022, Vol. 48 Issue 4, p555-578. 24p.

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Academic Journal

Lessons from an escalation prediction competition.

Authors : Hegre, Håvard^1,2 (AUTHOR); Vesco, Paola¹ (AUTHOR); Colaresi, Michael^1,3 (AUTHOR)

Source: International Interactions. Jul/Aug2022, Vol. 48 Issue 4, p521-554. 34p.

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Academic Journal

Using past violence and current news to predict changes in violence.

Authors : Mueller, Hannes¹ (AUTHOR); Rauh, Christopher² (AUTHOR)

Source: International Interactions. Jul/Aug2022, Vol. 48 Issue 4, p579-596. 18p.

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Academic Journal

The role of governmental weapons procurements in forecasting monthly fatalities in intrastate conflicts: A semiparametric hierarchical hurdle model.

Authors : Fritz, Cornelius¹ (AUTHOR); Mehrl, Marius¹ (AUTHOR); Thurner, Paul W.¹ (AUTHOR)

Source: International Interactions. Jul/Aug2022, Vol. 48 Issue 4, p778-799. 22p.

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Academic Journal

Direction Augmentation in the Evaluation of Armed Conflict Predictions.

Authors : Bracher, Johannes^1,2 (AUTHOR) ; Rüter, Lotta¹ (AUTHOR); Krüger, Fabian¹ (AUTHOR)

Source: International Interactions. Nov/Dec2023, Vol. 49 Issue 6, p989-1004. 16p.

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When the levee breaks: A forecasting model of violent and nonviolent dissent.

Challenging the status quo: Predicting violence with sparse decision-making data.

United they stand: Findings from an escalation prediction competition.

Predicting (de-)escalation of sub-national violence using gradient boosting: Does it work?

Recurrent neural networks for conflict forecasting.

Forecasting conflict using a diverse machine-learning ensemble: Ensemble averaging with multiple tree-based algorithms and variance promoting data configurations.

Lessons from an escalation prediction competition.

Using past violence and current news to predict changes in violence.

The role of governmental weapons procurements in forecasting monthly fatalities in intrastate conflicts: A semiparametric hierarchical hurdle model.

Direction Augmentation in the Evaluation of Armed Conflict Predictions.

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