Short-term forecasting approach of single well production based on multi-intelligent agent hybrid model.

Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101285081 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1932-6203 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 19326203 NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS One Subsets: MEDLINE

Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science

Algorithms* ; Education, Distance*; Entropy ; Intelligence ; Forecasting

The short-term prediction of single well production can provide direct data support for timely guiding the optimization and adjustment of oil well production parameters and studying and judging oil well production conditions. In view of the coupling effect of complex factors on the daily output of a single well, a short-term prediction method based on a multi-agent hybrid model is proposed, and a short-term prediction process of single well output is constructed. First, CEEMDAN method is used to decompose and reconstruct the original data set, and the sliding window method is used to compose the data set with the obtained components. Features of components by decomposition are described as feature vectors based on values of fuzzy entropy and autocorrelation coefficient, through which those components are divided into two groups using cluster algorithm for prediction with two sub models. Optimized online sequential extreme learning machine and the deep learning model based on encoder-decoder structure using self-attention are developed as sub models to predict the grouped data, and the final predicted production comes from the sum of prediction values by sub models. The validity of this method for short-term production prediction of single well daily oil production is verified. The statistical value of data deviation and statistical test methods are introduced as the basis for comparative evaluation, and comparative models are used as the reference model to evaluate the prediction effect of the above multi-agent hybrid model. Results indicated that the proposed hybrid model has performed better with MAE value of 0.0935, 0.0694 and 0.0593 in three cases, respectively. By comparison, the short-term prediction method of single well production based on multi-agent hybrid model has considerably improved the statistical value of prediction deviation of selected oil well data in different periods. Through statistical test, the multi-agent hybrid model is superior to the comparative models. Therefore, the short-term prediction method of single well production based on a multi-agent hybrid model can effectively optimize oilfield production parameters and study and judge oil well production conditions.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: © 2024 Yan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

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Date Created: 20240417 Date Completed: 20240419 Latest Revision: 20240425

20240425

PMC11023203

10.1371/journal.pone.0301349

38630729